| Date | Ticker | Direction | Thesis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | SHORT | Payrolls surprised upside (130k), and inflation remains sticky around 3%. The market is perpetually pricing in cuts that don't happen. If data stays strong, the neutral rate is likely higher (4%), meaning yields must rise (prices fall). SHORT US Treasuries (Expect higher yields). A sudden economic cliff dive necessitating emergency cuts. |